Will Santa Rally Shine for 2024 Amid Inflation, Rate Cuts and Global Unrest?

December 21, 2024

As 2024 draws to a close, investors eagerly await the much-anticipated Santa Claus Rally, a seasonal trend that has consistently brought cheer to markets worldwide.

A Santa Claus rally is a seasonal phenomenon that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January. It refers to the jump in stock prices in the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

During the Santa Claus Rally of 2023, the Indian benchmark index Nifty recorded a modest but positive return of 0.79%, marking its sixth straight year of gains and reinforcing the rally’s reputation as a dependable year-end phenomenon in the Indian market. Historically, this rally has failed only three times in the past 24 years, underlining its reliability in the Indian equity market.

This year, however, the landscape is different. With central banks across the globe adjusting their rate strategies, inflationary pressures persisting and geopolitical tensions casting a shadow, the question arises—will the Santa Claus Rally live up to its legacy?

The Indian markets are feeling the heat this December, with the Nifty index posting negative returns of 2.25% so far. Yet, an impressive 8.5% YTD gain in 2024 keeps the festive optimism alive. Will the Santa Claus Rally bring a festive turnaround? Let’s wait and watch!

For a comprehensive understanding and more insights, please go through our detailed report.

December Market Pulse: Fortnightly Investment Insights

December 20, 2024

FPIs Shift to Buying Mode: Focus on Financials, IT, Realty and More – Following significant selloffs in October and November, FPIs have turned buyers in the first half of December, signaling a shift in strategy. Their investments are now focused on sectors like Financial Services, Information Technology and Realty, along with Consumer Services, Capital Goods, Healthcare, Construction and Metal & Mining.

FPIs Divest Aggressively in Oil & Gas Sector – In the first half of December, FPIs executed a significant selloff in the Oil & Gas sector, disinvesting ₹5,337 crore. Other sectors that witnessed selloffs include Automobiles & Auto Components, FMCG, Consumer Durables, Power and Construction Materials, reflecting a strategic reallocation of investments by foreign players.

FPIs Back with a Bang: ₹22,766 Cr Pours into Indian Equities in December’s First Half – FPIs shifted gears in December, becoming net buyers after October and November sell-off. Equity purchases through secondary markets hit ₹14,435 Cr in the first half of December, sparking a recovery from November lows. Total FPI investment, including primary market investments and others, surged to ₹22,766 Cr.

FPIs Spark Record-Breaking Debt Market Investment in 2024 – 2024 is shaping up as a landmark year for FPI investments in Indian debt markets. FPIs poured ₹12,374 Cr into the Indian debt market in the first half of December. Cumulative FPI debt investment surged to ₹1,52,637 Cr, marking an all-time high for Indian debt markets. This milestone surpasses the previous record of ₹1,48,808 Cr set in 2017.

For a comprehensive understanding and more insights, please go through our detailed report.

Activities of Equity Mutual Fund Schemes – November, 2024

December 20, 2024

Equity MFs Target High-Potential IPOs in November: More than 75 equity mutual fund schemes actively participated in November’s standout IPOs, including Swiggy and NTPC Green Energy. Other notable offerings, such as Sagility India, Acme Solar Holdings and Suraksha Diagnostic Ltd, also attracted significant investments. This trend highlights fund managers’ strategic focus on high-potential market entrants to drive portfolio growth.

Top New Investment Picks by Equity Mutual Funds: Several equity mutual fund schemes have demonstrated a strong preference for fresh investments in companies such as Wockhardt, KEI Industries, Zomato, Varun Beverages, Interglobe Aviation, Affle India, Hindalco Industries and Bharat Electronics.

Equity Schemes Exit Key Positions in Major Companies: Several equity schemes have fully exited their positions in companies such as Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, NTPC, Cummins India, Honasa Consumer, Ola Electric Mobility, Power Grid, Bajaj Auto, Alkem Laboratories, Hero Motocorp, Premier Energies, Brigade Enterprises and Waaree Energies.

Mid-Cap Moves: Among the top-traded mid-cap stocks, many schemes invested in companies such as KEI Industries and Lupin. Meanwhile, several equity schemes chose to sell holdings in Coforge, Voltas, The Indian Hotels Company, FSN E-Commerce(NYKAA), Info Edge, Fortis Healthcare, Oberoi Realty and Mphasis.

Small-Cap Shifts: Among the most actively traded small-cap stocks, various equity schemes directed their investments towards companies such as Wockhardt, Medplus Health Services, Welspun Corp, PNB Housing Finance, Timken India and Aster DM Healthcare, while notable disinvestment occurred in MCX, Radico Khaitan and Aditya Birla Real Estate.

For a comprehensive understanding and more insights, please go through our detailed report.

Mutual Fund Flows – November 2024

December 12, 2024

The Mutual Fund industry’s average AUM dipped by 0.66% in November, settling at ₹68.05 Lakh Cr, even as net inflows surged to ₹60,295 Cr.

Equity oriented schemes saw ₹35.94K Cr inflows in November, marking an extraordinary 45 month streak of positive contributions. However, a slight market correction led to a dip in the Average AUM at ₹29.79 Lakh Cr.

Sectoral and Thematic funds faced a significant drop, with inflows plunging to ₹7,658 Cr from ₹12.27K Cr in October.

Arbitrage funds saw a sharp reversal with an outflow of ₹1,332 Cr in November, compared to inflow of ₹7.18K Cr in October, leading to a 75% drop in Hybrid fund inflows.

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) saw inflows plummet to ₹1,531.2 Cr in November, a sharp decline from ₹13,441.8 Cr recorded in October.

The average AUM of debt funds increased by 1.89% in November, despite a sharp 92% drop in net inflows to ₹12,916 Cr, compared to ₹1,57,402 Cr in October.

Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) once again garnered ₹25,320 Cr in November, maintaining near-parity with October’s ₹25,323 Cr, reflecting consistent investor confidence.

For an in-depth exploration, read through our comprehensive Mutual Fund Flow Report for November, 2024.

November Market Pulse: Monthly Investment Insights

December 12, 2024

FPIs Bet on IT, Financials and Realty Amid November Selloff – Amid selloffs in November, FPIs made investments in the Information Technology, Financial Services, Realty, Construction, Healthcare, Textiles and Utilities, indicating cautious, sector-specific interest despite broader market challenges.

FPI Record Selloff Hits Key Sectors: Oil & Gas, Auto, Telecom and More – In November, FPIs significantly reduced holdings across crucial sectors like Oil & Gas, Automobile & Auto Components, Telecommunication, Services, Construction Materials, FMCG, Metal & Mining and Power. This widespread selloff underscores rising global uncertainties and intensifying market pressures.

FFPIs Turn Net Sellers in 2024 as November Records Slower Selloffs Amid Volatility – FPIs pulled ₹21,612 Crs from the markets in November, citing expensive valuations and weak Q2 earnings, a notable slowdown compared to October’s sharp selloff. The November selloff pushed FPIs into net selling territory for the calendar year 2024, with total year-to-date selloff amounting to ₹15,019 Crs, reflecting increased market pressures and cautious sentiment.

FPI Muted in Debt Market: November Witnesses Minor Selloff – This marginal selloff brought the cumulative debt market investments for the calendar year down to ₹1,40,263 Crs, highlighting reduced foreign interest. FPIs sold a modest ₹36 Crs in India’s debt market in November 2024, reflecting subdued activity in the segment.

For a comprehensive understanding and more insights, please go through our detailed report.