As we approach the exit poll results in the evening and eagerly await the final verdict of the election results on Tuesday, the Indian markets are experiencing significant volatility due to the uncertain outcome. This pivotal moment raises several key questions for investors:
- What should we anticipate in the Indian market?
- How will the Nifty index react?
- What returns can we expect on the Nifty index on election result day or in the near term following the results?
We have analyzed data from 1999 onwards, encompassing five election cycles. In these cycles, the UPA triumphed in two elections, while the NDA secured victory in three.
This report examines Nifty index returns before, on, and after election result dates for the past five elections.
Summary of Key Findings
On Election Result Date: Returns are typically modest and show no significant spikes, indicating that the market had already priced in the anticipated election results or waiting for analysis of the final verdict.
Trend Continuity: The trend of returns 1 month before and 1 month after the election remains the same.
For a comprehensive understanding and more insights, please go through our detailed report.