September 2025 reflected a market in transition—balancing between domestic growth optimism and external headwinds. The focus now shifts to upcoming monetary policy reviews, global trade developments, and economic data releases, which will shape the near-term trajectory. Market participants remain cautiously optimistic, prioritizing quality assets amid low volatility and seeking clarity on policy direction before committing larger positions.
- The 10-year government bond yield stayed broadly steady around 6.58%, with brief spikes due to fiscal concerns but anchored by stable domestic factors.
- The RBI maintained the policy rate at 5.50%, citing low inflation and scope to support growth; a lower borrowing calendar eased supply concerns.
- The RBI revised FY26 GDP growth to 6.8% (up 30 bps) and lowered CPI inflation forecast to 2.6%
- Corporate bond yields remained stable and edged lower than August levels, supported by strong demand for high-quality credit.
- Liquidity surplus declined sharply to ₹1.47 lakh crore in September from ₹2.84 lakh crore in August, mainly due to GST and advance tax outflows, leading to firmer money market rates.
- The Indian Rupee was the worst-performing Asian currency, weakening to near an all-time low of 88.80 due to FPI outflows and high U.S. rates.
- Crude oil prices remained range-bound near $68/barrel amid balanced supply-demand conditions.
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